Hi Crash,
I like the idea ,it`s as good as any.
An easier way of calculating the odds instead of converting to percentages & then to a odds range , would be simply divide it`s number of wins into it`s number of starts e.g. 10 career starts for 1 win =10/1 or $11.00

THE PROBLEM ONE WILL FIND IS TRYING TO PLACE A BET THAT WINNS ENOUGH TO MAKE A PROFIT.

I feel a stronger approach would be to target its performance wins for
Good tracks only. e.g. 5 Good track starts for 1 win =5/1 or $6.00

That way we are comparing Apples with Apples as far as career track condition is concerend. Do this regardless what todays track condition is.
I feel it makes the theoretical price lower & more accurate , also more action.

I also feel it would be a strong idea to target only races where the whole field has had a min. of 5 career starts , that way we have a bit more meat to work with.

Cheers.

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Cheers.