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Old 19th February 2005, 07:27 PM
xptdriver xptdriver is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Port Macquarie
Posts: 1,694
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Gday All

I have had a look at what Crash is saying here and it works pretty well... As some have said earlier it doesnt work on all races... but with a bit of thought It does work and you can apply it to all races where there are horses with a win % (obvioulsy).. For someone who does ratings, I think this could be useful if you say took your top 4 as you rated them and then compared them to Crash's idea.. and bet the overlay accordingly.

Before I get accused of backfitting.. these are my actual ratings for last in Sydney today

4 $4.9 DESERT DANE
7 $4.9 COUNT LUSKIN
5 $6.5 HOT COFFEE
11 $8.7 PENNY OPERA


Using Crash's idea the prices you need to back any of these horses is as follows..

7 1318 Count Luskin (2) $2.00 BET
4 04x5 Desert Dane (16) $2.38 BET
5 116x Hot Coffee (18) $4.76 SCR
11 78x9 Penny Opera (NZ) (7) $6.67 BET

For the record Count Luskin won paying upwards of 9 bucks.. and in that race it was the horse with the best SR clearly...

There were other races thru the day where it seemed to work well

Crash, this idea is one I never even considered, but it shows promise I reckon if you can apply filters... I think the top 4 in your ratings (or you could go wider or narrower for that matter) is probably not a bad place to start..

Thanks for the food for thought
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