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Old 22nd February 2005, 04:01 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Hi Kennyvictor,

Any point system based on ranking runners needs to be Statistically sound, in order to be STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT and offer a 99% CONFIDENCE LEVEL, The WEIGHT NUMBER in the attached spreadsheet must be more positive than Plus 2.33 or more NEGATIVE THAN MINUS 2.33.
The attached SPREADSHEET WEIGHT COLUMN is designed to provide points that place all items on a comparable basis. That is the beauty of this Spreadsheet. It compares the results of each Factor tested to a fixed standard and then assigns a Statistically Significant Weight to each runners performance.

An example would be to use the number of Wins from each Barrier. Imagine the average number of starters is 8 in each race, the Expected % would be 12.5%, we would then record the actual number of Wins for each Barrier and divide that number into the number of Observations this would become our Observed % in the spreadsheet.

Now if you were creating a POINT SYSTEM with several Handicapping Factors, you would be justified in giving points to each ranking within each Factor Based on whether it exceeded the +/- 2.33 Confidence level.

Once you have a Point Score for each ranking for each Factor, you will find maybe only 3or4 will be STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT and offer a 99% CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

Now for Todays Race you rank each runner for each Factor and using your Point Score Table you have previously developed you can rank each runner based on Points awarded from the Point score Table in a Statistically sound method.
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