hi everyone! great discussion..i would just like to add my views too :smile:

Firstly, overseas horses (for eg vinnie roe) are at a large disadvantage as they are not used to the hectic pace out of the barriers in the 3200 metre distance. This usually results in the overseas horses having to settle wide and is a huge negative especially if the overseas horse has to race close to the pace.

Secondly, 59.5 kg for Vinnie Roe is quite steep in my opinion. Im sure Vinnie Roe has a big heart but i wonder how big it is to carry that weight? Personally, i would ignore most overseas horses with a hefty weight and no track experience. I believe Vinnie Roe has a chance at placing, probably running the same kind of race and position as Persian Punch last year. Bart Cummings is the one to watch as he is the Cups king...he understands the build up a horse needs, the pace at the start and how to get a horse primed up for the Melbourne Cup and finish first past the post.

Some good questions to ask yourself before deciding on who you think will win the Melbourne cup is: Who is the classiest/ champion horse of the field on recent form? Will it run out the distance? Is the track rating to the horses' liking and will it be able to get a fairly cosy run from its barrier?

What are people's thoughts? I would be very interested to hear!