Stats tell us 3 out of 10 favourites win. So [misplaced] logic suggests that we could indeed make a long term profit by simply backing all favourites starting at $3.50 or more.

I was having a bit of a play with the absurdity of putting too much faith in numbers that often by themselves as a betting guide mean ************ all. In fact the stats. don't tell us we will loose with the above system over the next year, just that we will loose long term or that we [might] have made a loss over the last year.

Another example would be: System 'A' checked over stats. for the last 10yrs. has averaged a 15% POT per year and another system 'B' similarly checked. made a 15% loss.

Armed with our stats. and being generally clever, we are going to bet system 'A' through the next year, but are we in fact making the correct decision and should we actually be betting on system 'B' instead ?

Do the stats. tell us that over the next year we will make a profit from system 'A' and a loss from system 'B' ?
Nothing of the kind of course and the 'all things being equal' logic doesn't cut the mustard either, because the laws of probability doesn't support backing A over B for the next year or vis-a-vis. We are on our own in this decision.

The stats cannot tell us the information we really need [will we make a profit or loss next year by backing system A or B ?] and never will tell us any such things. Hidden profit clumping and profit/loss % variables that have occurred over the past 10 yrs.in either system, would have ruled out any way of working out in advance which years where going to be profitable nor how the dice will fall next year. System 'A' might have made [averaged] 30% losses for 3 of those 10yrs. and system 'B' might have made 30% profit for 3yrs. and this explanation might go a long way in explaining why profitable systems always seem to go pear shaped after awhile, but not that they will stay pear shaped long term.

The only info. of any help is that if we have enough money [and perseverance] we have a better chance of making a profit on system A than system B if we back it for a full 10yrs., ....perhaps.