Hi Mr J

Thanks for taking the time to comment on my response to Benny who seemed like a novice.

So overall in three years you have done pretty well (+10, +10, -8) = +12 but you have lost money and are back to square one."

This would be because of poor bankroll management.

I agree, my point is then when we are starting out, we usually start with a small bankroll, by necessity. As we progress in confidence, we start to have bigger stakes and it only takes a small loss on bigger stakes to wipe out years of wins on smaller stakes. For most people starting out on small bankrolls this is a reality.

"One thing I have noticed is that when I get ahead about 12-15% on NFL and MLB, bad things happen."

Sorry but this is silly.
I know that you suscribe to some selection providers. They do not win every week. If they have a steady ascending profit path throughout a season then indeed my cutting my stakes would be silly. However this is not my experience. I have been with my NFL service for 3 years and they have produced between 5% - 8% profit each year. Last year for example they had the following results

week1 5w -3l = 62.5%
week2 4w -3l = total 9w -6l = 66%
week3 5w- 0l = total 14w - 6l =70%

at this point I decided they were way over the long term average and cut the bet to half
week4 4w-5l
week5 5w -5l
week6 4w -7l = total 27w - 23 l = 54%

now they are back to their long term average, so my bet size went back to normal

week7 4w -1l
week8 3w -2l
so when they had a bad run from weeks 4-6 (13-17) i had less money on.

If you look at the graphs of the MLB product offered by this web site you will see a similiar thing. For example in their 2004 season they made 46 units. I don't know how many bets they had but in the first 2 months they made 39 of those units and then dropped off in June and July before doing well in August.

I believe bankroll management should incorporate adjustments for long term trends and it is my experience that all selection methods go through peaks and dips in a season. I think if you examine all your betting from one service in a season you will find the same thing. However, if your service can provide over 60% winners every week, please let us know who they are.

"I bet short price favs"

Very few of these are good bets.

I agree, it is picking the good ones that is the trick. It does take a lot of work to seperate the wheat from the chaff. In any one tournament I might only find 2 value plays. My research does highlight young performers before the general public does. J Johannson provided most of my profit last year. P Luczak on clay this year is another example.

Progressions are a bad idea full stop. A progression decides the size of a bet based on past results and not the size of advantage, which means at some point the progression will call for a bet size that will be overbetting.

Couldn't agree more - hope Benny gets the messge.

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Thanks for taking the time to reply. It is discussions like this that will make us better punters.

Karla