Thread: Betting to Win
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Old 4th September 2002, 08:23 PM
becareful becareful is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Canberra
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Fryingpan,

I dont record the Latemail/2ky tips in my database so I can't do an assessment based on those. I did run a quick query just on TAB No 1's with high TABQ ratings and the results are not very encouraging. Using all data I have for this year I get the following:

No 1's Rated 100: 2105 starters of which 1193 placed (57%) for a LOSS of $146 (ie. -7% return). 564 winners (27%) with LOSS of $240 (-11% return).
No 1's rated 99: 538 starters of which 289 placed for loss of $26 (-7%). 115 winners for loss of $108 (-20%).
Lower ratings had similar or worse results.

Would the extra filters turn this into a profit? Personally I very much doubt it - in fact I suspect it may make things worse! If all four criteria are met then every mug punter around will be betting on it and the horse will probably start far shorter than its true value - you may get a high strike rate but the dividends will be miserable.
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