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24th February 2005, 07:07 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 696
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Hi Shy,
Its a very important part of WAGERING to understand when one of these "hot streak[s]" has arrived? How do you know if your "hot streak" is part of a POSITIVE or a NEGATIVE DIGRESSION? and Would this information make any difference in your wagering strategy? and How do you capitalize on a "hot streak" in wagering?
If you open up the SPREADSHEET that I posted some time ago it allows you to test 12 Wagering parameters and study the algorithm that creates the bet amounts, you will find that it lays out a strategy that capitalizes on WIN TRENDS, and puts the brakes on when a LOSING TREND develops.
The data that you have accumulated on the various factors comprise your statistical analysis. If a certain factor or group of factors provides evidence that they are indicative of entrants that win 25 % of all of their races, pay an average Odds of 4 to 1, and have a longest anticipated losing streak of 15 races, then you know that through a reasonable profit cycle you can earn a positive ROI of 25 %.
Obviously, since you will have 3 loses for every win, on average, you know that loses will come in streaks of up to 15 consecutive races. Therefor, it's very logical and probable that wins will also come in streaks. THIS IS THE ESSENCE OF A 100 % MECHANICAL SYSTEM. The goal of these wager parameters is to capitalize on multiple wins, which occur consecutively, or in close proximity, and to conserve capital during the losing streaks.
Once I buy a stock I use a money-management system to trade in the stocks, so that I make a profit through a reasonable profit cycle. This is the same approach I use in other forms of investment wagering. As stock prices fluctuate they will produce positive and negative digressions from equipartition. It is important that you have well defined money-management parameters that permit you to capitalize on positive and negative digressions. These parameters require you to take profits while in positive digressions and reinvest these profits in negative digressions. In this way your AVERAGE SHARE PRICE is always low enough to produce profits in the next positive digression. This is exactly the same procedure that you use in wager investing. If your research has pinpointed factors that produce a positive ROI (based upon WIN %, AVERAGE PAYOFF, LONGEST ANTICIPATED LOSING STREAK), you can confidently invest in losing streaks, knowing that Probability, Statistics, and Logic will produce consistent, substantial profits, through a reasonable profit cycle.
Go check out that spreadsheet an observe the clumpiness of wins.
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