Hi EI, Paddy,

Looking at my own speed and pace based performance ratings Titanic Jack and Innovation Girl are the only two horses that can win the Ascot Vale.

Titanic Jack rated 107 behind Bel Esprit last start which is very good and Innovation Girl rated 109 in her win the following week. Titanic Jack will improve however down to 53 kg's the edge in my view must go to Innovation Girl.

Brief Embrace is some hope but she would need to improve at least 2 lengths from her last effort.

In saying that, depending on the prices bet Titanic Jack could be good value over Innovation Girl. I think he will end up being once of the best horses to come out of the Spring. Being by Encosta Delago I don't expect we will see the best of him until he gets over 1400-1600m and he is actually my early tip for the Caulfield Guineas.