EI, I made a slight oversight yesterday and didn't realise that Able Choice was running in the Ascot Vale.

After doing the form last night I have them the following way

Innovation Girl $3.20
Able Choice $5.10
Titanic Jack $5.80

These three should absorb about 70% of a 100% market in my eyes. There isn't much hope for the others, maybe Brief Embrace who I have around $8.

The one thing Titanic Jack has in his favour is a previous win up the straight at Flemington. Statistically, horses who have raced there in the past do slightly better than first starters.

However there doesn't look to be a lot of pace and Able Choice is likely to be right along side Innovation Girl up near the lead. Titanic Jack might be back a bit and that will just make things a bit harder for him.

I think we're dreaming if we think he's going to be anywhere near $10 about Titanic Jack. The win of Bel Esprit was three lengths superior to Innovation Girls last win and both Able Choice and Titanic Jack finished about 3 lengths from Bel Esprit. Innovation Girl however is dropping from 57.5kg's to 53 while the others are about the same weight. That is the key factor for the race.

Both Able Choice and Titanic Jack have more scope for improvement so while Innovation Girl must rate on top, she is no good thing. I will have no hesitation in taking on Innovation Girl is she runs much shorter than $3.20 and the others are longer.