Pennetta vs Cervanova
Acapulco

The short price has made me think twice about this bet but I believe Pennetta still represents value (rated 72.6%) and that she has the momentum and game to beat Cervanova. There's no doubt Cervanova played extremely well against Randriantefy yesterday - especially during the third set. However finals pressure may count against her - she lost to Loit in her only other finals appearance (Casablanca; Clay; 2004) and has lost her four other semifinal appearances - all on clay. It can be argued that Cervanova has lifted her game and improved more than Pennetta during the week but I still rate her well below the Italian. Of course an upset is always possible and fatigue could be factor in Pennetta's performance - she complained of leg pains during her match with Osterloh - but this didn't seem to affect her yesterday. Luckily Serra Zanetti put in a meek performance in the semi final saving Pennetta from a physically drainig effort. She's also sounding very upbeat: "I like it here very much. I've always said that this is one of my favorite tournaments." Note that Cervanova won their only meeting but this was a hardcourt game in Indian Wells last year.

Pennetta $1.41 @ 5Dimes