Li vs Sugiyama
Dubai

I make the gnarly Na Li a 61.1% favourite in this match-up. Li (ranked 46 - a career high) came through qualifiers by easily beating Muller and Barna and then pipping Black in a close contest. She's young, tenacious and has made a solid start to 2005 by going 11/5 - all on hard. Moreover her record on hardcourts since 2001 is 77/18 and she clearly favours the fast conditions.
Li's ranking has also jumped over 200 places in 6 months while Sugiyama's has been slowly drifiting in the opposite direction. However Sugiyama shouldn't be underestimated because on her day, she's a proven performer. By these standards though, she's had a very poor start to 2005. Her only win in 6
matches came against Stosur last week - a match Stosur lost through sloppy play as opposed to Sugiyama playing well. Sugiyama did improve in her next match against Schiavone and though losing, took the game to 3 sets. Still Li has the momentum and form from qualifying so is in good shape to take the match.

Na Li $1.85 @ 5Dimes


Zheng vs Medina-Garrigues

Zheng (ranked 65) is another played who has performed well in qualifying this week with wins over Ruano Pascual and Camerin - both of whom have similar ratings to Medina-Garrigues(ranked 43). Zheng's had a good season thus far: she won the Hobart hardcourt with wins over Na Li, Dulko, and Asagoe (all reasonable players); she lost in the first round of Aussie Open to the classy Safina but it was a relatively close 3-setter, and she also took Mirza to 3 sets in Hyderabad (Mirza went on to win). In contrast, Medina-Garrigues has won only 1 of her 6 matches this season. To be fair she's had tough draws having come up against the likes of Pierce, Molik and Petrova. Then again Garrigues was beaten by Dulko last week - a player Zheng thrashed in the Hobart final. In short, the conditions should suit the hardcourt specialist and match-ready Zheng.

Zheng $1.47 @ 5dimes


Notes: Douchevina had a great qualifying win over young superstar Ivanovic and may well surprise Dechy who withdrew from Qatar last week with an illness. Always hard coming in cold - but Douchevina's too inconsistent to bet on. Similarly Likhovtseva is way too short in the market - she also withdrew
at late notice with an illness last week. Sfar is capable and appears highly motivated during interviews this week. Would like to play Bovina at the $1.70 but she's only third start back from long injury lay-off so question mark over her match fitness(h2h 7-2 Bovina).