"it would actually be closer to 450 bets."

I don't bet EVERY game The bookies are usually more accurate later on in the season. I was only betting on around 75-80% of games near the end of AFL/NRL last year.

I'd like to be selective, but betting all my picks is the most reliable way to get ahead. If it means I have to bet multis for a large chunk of AFL/NRL then that's what I'll have to do.

I can't be selective because I can't be sure which are my best bets. My tests have shown that the picks perform similiar no matter how large their perceived advantage is. Large overlays don't really perform better because they are way off often enough to offset the accuracy of the other large overlays.