Mr. Logic is spot on the money here!

Mathematically it is impossible to turn a level stakes loss into a profit. Staking plans will get you out of trouble from time to time, but longterm sooner or later when you have that "big" bet, you will lose.

Increasing the bet merely "hides" the loss temporarily.

For example,

Level Stakes loss.
Your staking plan is 1 unit, 2 units, 3 units, 4 units etc. until you hit a winner.

Overall you might have 10 x 1 unit bets
10 x 2 unit bets
10 x 3 unit bets
8 x 4 unit bets
5 x 5 unit bets
in order to recoup losses.

I can tell you without any shadow of a doubt that because you may have won using this plan a few times, when you finally get to 10 x 5 unit bets,and you are still losing, you will have to keep going to recoup losses and your bank will eventually be wiped out.

Need any further proof?

O.K. Many publications such as PPM (shame on them!) advocate backing favourites willy nilly and increasing the bet to chase losses.
This will work on some days granted. But, eventually you will face a meeting where not one favourite salutes (there have been meetings where not one starting favourite has placed! - rare, but it has happened).
We all know that backing favourites level stakes results in a level stakes loss and therefore, no matter how you stake it, you must lose longterm. If this were not the case, the bookies and the TAB would go broke!

Why?

Because having 10 x 5 unit bets is exactly the same statistically as having 10 x 1 unit bets. Your are still having 10 x 5 unit bets at level stakes and the "system" shows a loss at level stakes. This is just an example but when you lose the 10 x 5 unit bets, you are then staking 10 x 6 unit bets and when that fails, your are giving away all previous profits and now CHASING your starting bank.

So you have lost :
10 x 1 unit bets =10 units
10 x 2 unit bets =20 units
10 x 3 unit bets =30 units
10 x 4 unit bets =40 units
10 x 5 unit bets =50 units

Total Loss 150 units

You are now chasing 150 unit loss with 6 unit bets!

(Note this is just an example of how staking plans can ruin your bank, there are many variations etc).

I hope this helps to understand the mathematics behind it. Many years ago, I too was the victim of friends etc praising the merits of staking plans, until I sat down and did trials over 1,000 races and began to see the logic.

This is not intended to offend any staking plan advocates, and staking plans work well to compound profits if your system shows a profit at level stakes.
Similarly if you are a small hobby or fun punter then staking plans can be fun.

But if you are losing money and can't figure out why - this is your answer. Similarly if you are currently winning using a staking plan and your system shows a level stakes loss - BEWARE They will always get you in the end!
It is a mathematical fact.


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-08 12:13 ]