View Single Post
  #6  
Old 8th September 2002, 02:16 PM
becareful becareful is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Canberra
Posts: 730
Default

If what Bhagwan has posted is correct (ie. 12.5% LOSS at level stakes) then don't go near it!

Mr Logic & Equine Investor are 100% correct - no Staking Plan can turn a level stakes loss into a profit IN THE LONG RUN. They may show a profit over a few weeks or even a few months but sooner or later you will lose your whole bank.

Mathematically speaking traditional staking plans never change your long term POT - they can increase $profits (and $losses!) by increasing your turnover but your POT stays the same IN THE LONG RUN. Only exception to this is when you are changing your bet size proportionally to the amount of "OVER" you are getting. eg. if true value of a horse is $5 and you can get $6 then you bet 1 unit, if you can get $8 then bet 3 units, etc. As EI mentioned on another thread this can dramatically increase your POT (but only if you can accurately assess the overs situation).

There have been much better "systems" discussed on this forum for free that show better returns than -12.5%. In fact picking horses completely at random only loses about 14.25% in the long run so you're paying a lot of money for less than 2%!
__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson
Reply With Quote