8th March 2005, 02:45 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Port Macquarie
Posts: 1,694
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by maverick1993
Hi X.
noticed Wyong Race 7 you dont rate Chevington ,,is it because of the 1350m ? because he won well last start..
and with Pushpig ...good record 2nd up,, good association with Jay and raced in way harder races than this..
I think its a good betting race..a great trifecta race..
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Gday maverick,,
Because my ratings are pretty mechanical, they sometimes throw up some strange strange ratings.. sometimes the strange ones romp in at 30/1... that's the punt.. My ratings take into account weight differences between indvidual runners.. in this race Chevington is 2.5 (equal top weight) over the limit.. I know it is a compressed weight spread.. so it is penalised accordingly, whereas horses on the limit are given a tick for being on the limit.. I think that by using weight this way, brings up some of the 'on the limit' horses and they are usually at value prices. There are other variable in play as well..
Having said that, I cannot argue with your logic in this race.. I am not entirely comfortable with how this race has come out.. Also there was another very very dodgy race at Mildura ( a very very ordinary Open) where I ended up with Crop on top.. that was the weight variable that pushed it to the top... it was on the limit whereas the spread of weights was 6 kilos sometimes this is the one rating variable that brings in the profits.. other days it can cost me..
Hope that explains things a bit.. Having said that, whilst the weight difference from the limit is important it is not the only variable I use to arrive at my figures |