Hi desi

Reading your posts with interest. Hope I am not intruding but I'll put in my 2 cents worth.

I handicap ATP tennis and MLB (will start a thread on that soon). I use Excel Spreadsheets as I am a bit of a whizz at them. The database functions are OK.

Both sports i have done since the early 90's. Lots and lots of bad starts and fustrating statistics. Much of the obvious statistics aren't much of a help. It is only when I started putting in situations that things started to come together. I bet only $2 or $5 on selections until 2003. I believe it is only when you put on money that you learn things. Otherwise you rationalize things away.

In 2003 and 2004 I started to make money. Most sports handicappers try to get 10% POT (profit on turnover). This is the holy grail. Then we settle for 5-8%. As Mr J and other posts have stated the worst thing you can do in sports gambling is to chase losses. Never never keep doubling. The best teams go on losing streaks. for instance the Los Angeles Dodgers- a overall winning team in baseball in 2003 - lost 7 games on the trot at less than 1-2 on (1.50 or less). Every year some team go sour.

Any selection method must make a level bet profit. Staggering bets to fit a profit pattern is the most common mistake new sports bettors make.

Select a sport you actually play or have played to handicap. You will then understand situations better. One thing I have found is individual players in a team sport of 10 or more rarely make a difference. The media loves to suggest that because a certain player is out, a team will go bad. More often then not the rest of the team lifts, the team adjusts its style or the replacement is some young guy who has been just waiting for his turn. ALso when you are looking up past history, the statistics do not include who was in and who was out.

Watch out for sports like NRL where the rules, teams and other things keep changing. Past stats of home team performance are useless in a sport like that.

It takes a lot of work and it is a grind. Nothing like coming home from a nite out at 3 am and then handicapping 15 baseball games.

Selective betting is better, remember the bookies are taking 5-10% out of the pot each bet. Selective sport betting reduces their take. The more you bet, the higher the porportion of winners you need.

Hope all that helps a bit. Might be easier just to suscribe to the guys here - lol.

Karla