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Originally Posted by Desi
Can I ask how you assess ratings at the beginning of say the NRL season...
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With great difficulty.
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Originally Posted by Desi
what factors do you take into account in reaching your figures
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For the start of the season, it is mostly subjectivity. I simply take last year's rating and add or subtract points depending on player movement and injuries etc. But it's only after about 3 rounds or so that I start getting some solid form to work with for this season.
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Originally Posted by Desi
how do the ratings impact on your betting? Futures, head to head or line?
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As far as futures betting goes, I come up with a set of ratings at the start of each season based on how I think the teams will go for the whole year and depending on the value or otherwise, I'll back teams to win or finish in the top 4 or top 8. Here are my ratings for this season.
36 Bulldogs
32 Syd Roosters
28 Penrith
26 Nth Qld
26 Melbourne
26 Brisbane
26 St Geo Ill
24 Parramatta
22 Newcastle
22 NZ Warriors
22 Sharks
20 Manly
16 Souths
16 Canberra
16 W. Tigers
Now, to that original set of ratings, I then make adjustments from week to week based on current form and injuries etc and these ratings are what I use to base my weekly bets on. Here are my ratings for Round 1.
34 Bulldogs
28 Syd Roosters
28 Penrith
26 Melbourne
26 Nth Qld
26 Brisbane
22 St Geo Ill
22 Parramatta
20 Newcastle
20 Sharks
20 NZ Warriors
20 Manly
16 Souths
16 Canberra
16 W. Tigers
I then add points for home ground advantage or head to head advantage and I'm left with a margin. Here's what I've come up with for this week and the value prices using that table I began this thread with:
Bulldogs by 14
Bulldogs ($1.20)
St George ($6.00)
Parramatta by 4
W.Tigers ($2.65)
Parramatta ($1.60)
S.Roosters by 12
S.Roosters ($1.25)
Souths ($5.00)
Penrith by 2
Sharks ($2.25)
Penrith ($1.80)
NZ Warriors by 6
NZ Warriors ($1.50)
Manly ($3.00)
Melbourne by 12
Melbourne ($1.25)
Newcastle ($5.00)
Brisbane by 2
Brisbane ($1.80)
Nth Qld ($2.25)
I then use these ratings to look for overlays or differences in my margin to the lines that the bookies have, but I don't go looking for a bet in every game. A couple a week is all I want. In many games, I can't get the value I'm looking for because the bookies have basically the same opinion as me. Ideally you want a situation where you have a certain team favourites, but the bookies have them underdogs or when you have a team losing by a narrow margin but the bookies give them a large start.
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Originally Posted by Desi
I love having bets on sports but realise having read the depth of what other forum participants go to (and the kind of specific details/ stats they provide) that a lot of the times Im taking a big stab in the dark and I want to try and get a little more refined in the way I approach my sportsbets this year...
Sorry for all the questions Sportz...
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That's okay. Although it may seem from all the gobbledeegook that I've gone on with in this post, that I'm some knowledgeable expert with all sorts of you beaut info, I can assure you that isn't really the case. It's pretty much just 90% my own silly opinion + 10% statistics.
And you watch all those predictions go right down the gurgler now, just to make me look like a total goose.