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Originally Posted by smithy
Xpt & Sportz,
After you do your ratings how do you bet your selections?
For example, do you only bet the selections that are greater odds than you rate, or do you bet them in order they drop.
Also, xpt you rate every race each day which appears to be a lot of work how long does it take for this process, and how many races do you bet on a day?
Cheers
Smithy
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Gday smithy...
to knock over 4 meetings, downloading the form, sorting, and rating takes me about 2 hours per day... when you have 4 meetings or less it can take less, Yesterday there were 50 odd races I rated, today there are 32, so it is a relatively light load today.. I am only able to rate them at the moment because I am on holidays from work for a few weeks, and my girlfriend has been pretty ********** last couple of weeks, so she hasn't been on my case (that will change tho *sigh*) I am rating them a wee bit differently than normal because I have more time because I am not working... when I go back it will be different.
As to betting, I hate telling people how to bet ... My ratings are not accurate enough to back the top rater... that way lays the soup kitchen and madness.. However in my opinion, Testarossa (when he posts) and Sportz and William are far better than me at the one horse thing... they are amazingly accurate.
I think my ratings are good enough for people who multi bet (meaning multiple horses in a race)or trifecta and ff bettors, and take the overs when they present. Now you can make the overs what ever you like, it can be just better than the price I post or double, treble 4x or whatever.. That is totally up to the person using the ratings and their idea of what value is.... The prices I post are set with most of TAB takeout included.. or if you like markets of about 116%.
Another way that I experimented with a while back and seems to work ok is to split your bet into a Unit ( $10 minimum Unit) and you split it as follows.. Now remember you can make a unit whatver you like 20 50 or 100 whatever.. but the minimum is 10.. place 1 dollar on each of the top 4 then place a 4 horse quinella.. from my past experience sometimes you can make a fair profit whilst not doing a whole lot of damage on bad days..
If I am betting to win... I look at the horses rated up to about $11 give or take and bet the overs.. In my opinion, the more volatile races (where you will get a long prices winner) are Maidens and low class races,( a lot of time it is guess work working those races out, because of not a lot of disclosed form) races on a Saturday throw up big prices sometimes particularly at tracks like Flemington, Victoria Park,, ************ Moonee Valley I can't pick a winner.. at the moment my melbourne form is pretty ordinary
and contrary to what most of the pundits will tell you, Jumps and Steeples are a GOOD bet, these are normally old horses with lots and lots of form and usualy run true to their form..
I hope this helps