I expect more variable results today as I back a few match-ready outsiders versus overvalued favourites coming in cold off a bye.

Kirilenko v Bovina
Indian Wells

A closer match than it appears on paper. Bovina is undoubtedly a great talent - you don't rank 15 in the world without being able to play. However I thinks there's a couple of things running agianst her. First she's only played four games this season as she's returning from a long injury layoff. Secondly Bovina's first up at Indian Wells having had a first round bye. Her opponent Kirilenko is a young player of great talent who came through qualifications and Round One without any problems. She's also in good form this season making the QF's in Doha which included a good win against Schnyder. She also performed well in Hyderabad - losing a close SF match to eventual winner Mirza. Her Hyderabad performance also included a good win over Na Li. I still rate Bovina the favourite at 65.9 v 34.1 but I'm willing to take the value on Kirilenko. She may not have Bovina's skill or experience but she has the game to win and a has had a slightly better preparation. Looking for an upset.

Kirilenko @ $3.35 - Pinnacle


Domachowska v Medina-Garrigues.
Indian Wells

Domachowska's coming off a good First Round win over Salerni (who had 2 good wins in qualifying: Castano and Dokic) so should be full of confidence and used to the conditions. Domachowska's also a competent hardcourter going 46/21 over her career, though she's had a mixed start to 2005. A minor shoulder strain at Hyderabad has slowed her down but her comeback has been positive enough. What I do like is her positive attitude which has helped
her rise about places in the rankings over the past 6 months. Her opponent Garrigues has had a shocking start to the season going 0-5 (4 hardcourt, 1 carpet). it must be said that she came up against some class opponents such as Molik, Pretrova and Dulko, but it's hardly ideal preparation for a player who is more at home on clay. That said, Garrigues won't be a pushover but Domachowska should prevail.

Domachowska $1.65 - generally available.


Jackson v Suarez
Indian Wells

Looking fo another upset here. Suarez is a class act returning from a long injury layoff. Her two comeback games were both easy losses to Bartoli (Doha) and Jankovic (Dubai). While a solid hardcourter who has performed reasonably well here before, she's much more at home on clay. Her opponent, the young and relatively inexperienced Jackson, has been slowly climbing the
rankings over the past few months. She's a respectable 46/26 on hard over her career, though a lot of her early games were on the challenger circuit. Good wins over Karatancheva and Frazier in Memphis and a close 3-set loss to Vaidisova means she certainly has the talent to win. A good Round One win
yesterday over Barna should be good preparation for this match-up. I'm not underestimating Suarez, this should be close.


Jackson $2.00 @ Pinnacle.


MarianaDiaz vs Dulko.
Indian Wells

I have this match much closer than the bookies. Both women prefer clay but are competent hardcourters. Dulko made the QF's here last year but had good preparation coming through the 2004 qualifiers. This year she's had a First Round bye and meets an in form DiazOliva who's had the benefit 3 matches here already. These included wins over Hopkins, Drake, and Brandi all of whom are capable players on hard. The H2H stands at 1-1 but with both games being very close. The first was a 3-set qualifier at Indian Wells 2001 while the second saw DiazOliva beat Dulko at this year's Australian Open (where she also put up a good fight against Kuznetsova). I still rate Dulko the favourite at 53.9% v 46.1% so there's a bit of value on the outsider.

DiazOliva $2.30 @ Pinnacle.

Notes. Be wary of Groenefeld who's first game back from injury.