TESTAROSSA,

Feel free to work on it and refine it as much as you like. The aim of the game is to come out a winner, so I have no problem if you can find some additional filters.

I don't think we would come up with exactly the same selections as my system has a lot of flexible filters.

Here is a copy of the reply I emailed amateur earlier which may help further....

"amateur,

I can't tell you exactly what filters I use as everyone would come up with my longshot winners.

However, I can guide you in the right direction with some more information.

I have researched thousands of HORSES racing and training patterns and can tell you that there will always be exceptions to every rule, but there are trends and patterns which emerge.

1. Initial horse selection is critical.
Horses which have WON in todays class or above in it's career often have a habit of popping up at any old odds even though recent form may be below average.

2. Spells and breaks between runs.
Horses first-up are rarely good value.
Many do win first-up as two or three year olds but come back next preparation needing a few runs before hitting top form as they are older. The older a horse gets, usually the longer it takes to find best form. (again there are exceptions, but look at Northerly this time in. - surely poor value at even money first up!!!).

If a horse has more than 30 day break between runs, even during a preparation, not necessarily a spell, it usually indicates illness or injury. These horses rarely perform up to their best after such a break. They normally have to restart and regain fitness all over again.

3.Each preparation you only know a horse is truely fit when it has WON!
I only consider horses to bet on when they have won this time in.
Some very good horses never regain their very best form ever again! These horses cost you money.

I do not consider distance, track etc as if the horse has the PROVEN ability (CLASS) and has won this preparation, then it is usually value. Nobody can predict with any accuracy whether the distance suits the horse as their patterns of racing change from year to year.

I hope this helps you,
I don't mean to dodge the issue, but I did share some information with someone recently and noticed the odds tumble from 20/1 into 8/1 on many of my selections.

If you use my information as a general guideline, you will find horses at good odds and good value who are fit and have proven ability regardless of one or two bad runs which may have been bad luck rather than ability to win today's race.

Regards,
Equine Investor."


Bear in mind it takes a lot less money bet to shorten long-priced winners than it does to shorten even a 5/1 chance. That is why I haven't given EXACT filters, but you should get the general idea and maybe like to refine it further.

It should be noted that these are only my opinions and many may disagree, I don't have hard and fast statistics to offer, they were only my observations of trends and patterns.
It does work for me but over a long period of time ...I.E. months. You can't expect to win every meeting or even every week and still get longshot winners. Sometimes you get lucky and have a day where three or four will pop up, other times you can go through weeks of frustration. That's why my filters are flexible and get winners between odds-on and 75/1. Keeps the interest up in between droughts.

Regards.


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-12 15:42 ]