Quote:
On 2002-09-13 14:56, osulldj wrote:
Testa..... I ran your system from Mar 99 to end June 2003. It had 1795 selections for 158 winners, a 8.8% strike rate and a loss at level stkes of 15.3% using NSW TAB dividends.
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osulldj was June 2003 a typo or can you send me all the results up to June 2003!!!
:grin:
Seriously, with regard to enjay's post, I think he treated the further test separately and didn't add it to the total results.
Yes, it would show a loss at level stakes because the filters are unrefined. Concentrating on favourites only as a rule (in my opinion only) means that usually you are getting poor value OR your bets would be very sparse. If you keep backing favourites it is very hard to get overlays. With a system like this, overlays come on horses with inherent class and ability who are fit but have recently run average races due to either the way the race was run, interference etc.
Let me give you some examples of huge overlays I have gotten and how they became selections.
1. Citichy - Ramornie Handicap 17/07/02
Placed in Listed Races
Won over the distance
Won in today's class or higher
Won this preparation
Won Group 3 race in it's career
50% place strike rate
Result won by a nose paying $78.20 S-TAB.
2. Sports
Multiple Group 1 winner
Multiple Group 2 winner
Multiple Group 3 winner
Multiple Listed race winner
50% place strike rate
Won on the track
Previously won carrying today's weight.
WON by a nose paying $30.30 (S-TAB)
Just two examples of great overlays.