Update and Day 6

34 Bets: 26 Wins; 8 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 34; Win 10.72; ROI 31.5%


Kirilenko saluted the judges yesterday as did our unofficial (won't be recorded) tip Martinez. I don't know if anybody managed to get the $1.38 on Martinez - the best I saw at my various bookies was $1.37 though I only had limited time to check yesterday.


Vaidisova V Pierce
Indian Wells

I've written quite a bit about Vaidisova over the past few posts so I won't repeat myself. Needless to say she's a red-hot youngster coming up against an experienced yet past-her-best Mary Pierce. I thought long and hard about posting this bet. While Vaidisova is a clear favourite in my stats (58.5% v 41.5%), she's only 15 and is relatively untested at this level. Pierce has the experience and on her day can still compete at the top level - however her recent results leave a lot to be desired. She's played very little this year (6 games) and this is only her second hardcourt tournament for 2005. She displayed a competent yet somewhat erratic performance against Cervanova in Round 2, but it's this variablitly in her performance that leaves her vulnerable. This will be a close match but on the balance of probabilites, Vaidisova is value.

Vaidisova; $1.91 - Pinnacle & 5Dimes


Kirkland v Craybas
Indian Wells

Another close match up. Kirkland is a young American with a strong serve and plenty of attitude. She's probably exceeded expectations in this tournament but has been impressive in her general play. Kirkland did benefit from an injury-plagued performance from Bartoli in Round 2, but has beaten the likes of Cho, Granados,and Diaz-Oliva on hardcourts this year. Her 42/25
record on hard reflects her overall talent. Kirkland's opponent Craybas has been having an ordinary season, so-much-so she dropped back tp the challenger circuit last month. However her losses this season have mostly been close 3-set affairs to reasonable opponents so she'll definitely push Kirkland all the way. Craybas also recorded a solid win against the over-rated Likhovtseva in Round 2. I split the match 50/50 so there's value on Kirkland at the price.

Kirkland; $2.20 @ Ladbrokes
(can't see this price lasting too long but still available).


Dechy v Stosur.
Indian Wells

Stosur surprised me by passing Cho in the previous round and her effort was a definite improvement upon recent performances. However Dechy should have too much for her today. The Frenchy has quite a few ranking points to defend here this week and has a relatively favourable draw to the QF's - so her motivation should be high. Her first-up game against Loit yesterday wasn't anything special but I still consider her all-round game superior to Stosur's. Dechy's mental tenacity can be a bit woeful sometimes, but the importance of the tournament may see a repeat of her excellent Australian Open effort - the last "big" tournament she played in. Historically, she always seems to lift for
these 'ranking' occassions.


Dechy; $1.50 @ SportsTab, Pinnacle, 5Dimes