Logically you would think that after I spent 8-10 hours assesing just three or four races I'd have the confidence to back 'em but I purposely do not look at the prices before I start and only after I've made my eliminations and ranked my selections... The favourite often does not come out on top..

I know that there is little relationship between the prices and the winning chances percentage wise, this is what gives rise to the theory that if you can price your own selections and back only those payng higher value you must be ahead over time...

But when my top choice is $40-$50 on the tab I get the jitters...If it had been at $5-$10 I would have placed my full bet but instead I got the doubts and opted for $10 place and $5 win.. Nice but not as nice as $50 straight out... That'd pay for the tyres and I'd have some beer money left..

Regards
OzPunter