Clijsters v Dementieva
Indian Wells - Semi Final

An interesting match-up - the ex-champion Clijsters showing great form while coming back form a wrist injury versus the up-and-down yet classy Dementieva who has been defying opinions and a lot of money all week by continuing to win. The factors in Clijsters favour include her great record at Indian Wells, her success rate in Semi-Finals and Finals, her 5-1 h2h over Dementieva (though some of these matches are dated), her ratings improval in my database has improved over the past month more than Dementieva's (both form and surface), and her motivation during interviews has been very positive. As a minor aside (purely anecdotal), we're likely to see the return of her arch rival Henin-Hardenne from injury next week so Clijster's will be looking to outperform her in comeback matches (this is a HUGE rivalry). Dementieva is certainly capable of beating Clijsters and has an excellent record on US hardcourts. She's played well at Indian Wells before and has just beaten one of her Russian rivals Kuznetsova in the Quarters. Her matches this week have involved an element of 'luck' as both were comeback from behind victories. Her weakest link is her serve which can be all over the place - something Clijster's with her new aggressive technique will be looking to exploit. Dementieva has also been complaining in interviews that she's playing her worst tennis for years - though she's still winning! The Russian claims to be having trouble concentrating but whether these are just mind games with her opponent we're yet to see. I have Clijster's as a clear favourite and while she's right on the value line, I'll take the bet.

Clijsters $1.50 @ Pinnacle and Betfair.