Hi EI,

I tend to agree that Bel Esprit would struggle against the "very best" G1 horses at 1400m.

According to my pace & speed ratings his performance in the Manikato was 1 length below his previous two wins. In saying that it was a group 1 standard run in every sense of the word. After a dubious ride he was narrowly beaten by one of the best sprinters in the country and beat another one of the best home. The track was a little fast on the day but that taken into account they still ran great time.

In respect to his ability over 1200m I'm not concerned he wobbled over the last bit, he had used his available energy well before the last 100m and was entitled to weaken.
The reason he faded noticably was due to the fact that Seamer did go a bit early. His sectional between the 400 and 200m was apparently the fastest ever run at Mooney Valley. If Seamer holds him up a bit more and reels off that section from say the 300m to 100m he doesn't show any signs of weakening and probably wins. The critical point is that he still covered the 1200m is a speed very few horses are capable of.

In my eyes he is a top quality G1 horse even over 1200m.

However the pace in the Manikato was only average so he certainly wasn't used up in the first 600m....he had as much energy as he would have wished for in the final 600m of that race and used every ounce of it to run the race he did. That being the case it's hard to see him maintaining that performance over an extra 200m. He will certainly still be able to run well well above average, but I don't believe up to the top G1 level against older horses.

Alot will depend on which race he contests this week and how the field lines up. That aside he must be consider him some sort of risk this week over 1400m, especially after such a gut busting effort in the Manikato.