Thanks Woof, Top Rank.

The first part of your post, Woof, working out the difference between s/r and s/r required I did the following:

To make 10% profit, (minimum) return is $110 for every 100, which is a s/r req of 100/4.6 or 23.91%, making the difference of 6.09% that you talked about. So, got that bit right.

For the second bit you said:

Now to find the minimum number of races computed to a confidence level of 99% do the following.
(your Win % * your Loss %)*(2.575/.0609)^2. the answer would be 376 races to provide you with a 99% confidence level.

wouldn't that be therefore:

(0.3*0.7)*(2.575/.0609)^2

or

(0.21)*(42.28)^2

or

8.879^2

= 79 or so?

Which bit did I muck up?