When I mentioned the jockey switch, I was in no way having a go at Seamer or even being enthusiastic about Oliver. I was merely pointing out that the mere engagement of Oliver will trim the odds half to one full point. Which will make Bel Esprit even worse value.

I am not saying that Bel Esprit isn't any chance - but whether the horse wins or not, such a distance query is not value at anything under 3/1.

My personal opinion is that the distance is beyond a win for Bel Esprit, but I have been wrong before. Look at my bet against Northerly!

However, what I am not wrong about is the value angle.
Northerly was not value first up at even money and Bel Esprit is not value at under 3/1 win, lose or draw; especially when you consider the records of the opposition who are proven at the distance and beyond.

Just my opinion.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-19 15:30 ]