OK here's my 80% market for the Doncaster. Have chopped and changed on this race, thought about it heaps, and have ended up with Desert War rated very highly, and being the horse I will back, because of these reasons:

1 - I think he might be a wet tracker... That win in the Epsom last spring prior to FLOPPING (with my money on him) in the Caul Cup was on an affected track, slow by my readings, and he hasn't hit one since. That was the wettest track he has raced on. (His other slow track run was a win two, but in a maiden at Gosford). He rated through the ROOF winning that day At Randwick over the same track, distance and state of the track.

2 - Last run looked a bit one paced (which wet trackers ARE), and possibly short of a run, which sets him up to peak today.

3 - Doncaster is a test of strength. He will get the PERFECT run, in a race which notoriously is difficult to lead all the way in. (I think, that's just on memory, not research).

4 - His home track. He performed so badly in Melb, maybe he hates travel.

5 - Trainer a genius.

Winning Belle is going to fly. No doubt about that. Huge run LS, will be suited coming back to the mile because it's such a tough race this one, the backup will just mean she is rock hard, will get nice run.

Courts in Session is very well placed, a very good racehorse who rates really well and has done so four runs in a row. Also get a very nice run.

This is a really interesting race. Am looking forward to it.

Good luck all!



RAN 6 3.05
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $3.8 DESERT WAR
11 1.6 $7.0 WINNING BELLE
2 2.0 $8.6 COURTS IN SESSIO
8 2.6 $12.3 IKES DREAM
14 2.9 $15.5 AL MAHER

Emergency selections in case of another biblical deluge:
4 3.3 $20.5 MODEM
7 4.3 $48.2 PATEZZA
17 4.5 $56.3 TUI SONG-NZ