4th April 2005, 01:45 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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My opinion....
Both points of view are right - but only to a point.
a) The public's "ratings" probably do outperform any ratings service with regard to strike rate. The TAB market is the most effective filter to determine a horse's chances, but that does not equate to winning. Otherwise we'd all be losing so much % and that would be that.
There needs to be a way of finding out when the public has it right or just a little wrong. Or when the public overbets a favourite and others become value.
b) There was the point made regarding ratings, that the tote is more often right than any ratings service. I agree, but it's not about the number of winners, it's about value.
A good reliable ratings service will not boast "we picked more winners than the public". It will find value bets or overlays and identify where the public have overbet (confidence, hype etc) or underlay. A good ratings service will also have one or two horses in their top 3 that the public has ignored largely which win for one reason or another.
This is not an ad for propun, but correcting the misconception of value versus strike rate.
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