Amelia Island - Outright

Serena Williams to win: $3.00 @ Centrebet

Serena's likely matches in her half of the draw - barring any upsets - are Randriantefy, Pierce, Schnyder and Molik. There are of course a few variations in terms of her opposition - for example - Zvonereva may beat Molik or Farina Elia may beat Schydner. However these changes don't really impact upon the odds. Serena has solid records against all these players who, for the main part, are better suited to hardcourts.

The main reason for this selection is the imbalance in the two halves of the draw. Serena's lower half is far easier than the top half- an anomaly that can be blamed on the WTA's inefficient seeding methodology.

The real interest will come in the final. Barring upsets she will play Venus or Davenport (or possibly Myskina or Petrova who have great clay skills). Should there be an upset in the top half of the draw then Serena's price looks even better. In the top half of the draw, I rate Venus as favourite. Her record on clay last year was better than her record on hard. However she has a probable QFinal against Davenport and a SFinal against Myskina and her odds reflect this.

I think it's fair to say that Serena isn't playing her best tennis at the moment but I don't think she'll be really challenged until these last few games. If she does make the final, there will be an opportunity to 'arbitrage' the bet for a profit on either player. I'm sure she's still smarting from her loss last week so perhaps a bit of revenge is on the cards.

Trying to be objective - Serena isn't defending many points here so there's not a lot at stake in terms of her quest for No. 1. However I'm sure she's not here for fun and it's very unusual to see both Williams' in the same tournament outside of slams (and the Nasdaq - the unofficial 5th slam).