A few outsiders in the mix tonight but all have very good chances of winning. I'm surprised at some of the prices on offer but this is often the case as the tour moves from hard to clay.

These are all early lines but I'm not sure whether the markets will go up or down given some of the unusual prices.


Pierce v Daniilidou
Amelia Island - Round 2

Following on from my first round pick on Pierce who is the better clay court player who, as expected, crushed Bedanova during the first round. With a far superior clay court record and a past winner of this tournament, Pierce should also dispose of Daniilidou who is a mere 23/23 on clay. Daniilidou is also recuperating from a recent thumb injury and while it's not particularly serious in terms of fitness, it kept her out of the game for several weeks.

Pierce $1.42 @ 5Dimes.


Martinez V Jankovic
Amelia Island - Round 2

Absolutely stunned at these prices. I make Martinez a clear favourite. Before I extol her virtues, my only minor concern is her withdrawal from Nasdaq last week with a left heel injury. However, she won her first round match in steady if unspectacular fashion and should be better for the run. Nothing has appeared in the media, post-match interveiws or on her website mentioning any problem with her fitness. Ok - Martinez: 13th appearance at tournament and didn't lose before QF's in first 8 appearances. Has won tournament, has 2 runner-ups and made the third round in her two most recent appearances. Rates Amelia Island as one of her favourite events. She also has a 125/52 career record on clay and has been in sensational form this season. Her opponent Jankovic is a young up-and-comer with a 32/23 clay record. However most of her success has come on hardcourts. She made headlines recently by making the finals in Dubai but perhaps people are forgetting that was a hardcourt game - not clay - and that she only made the final through Williams retiring in the semi. Jankovic did have a good win over Douchevina in the first round, but Douchevina is well known for her inconsistent performances so I'm not reading too much into it. If Martinez's injury is still troubling her then perhaps Jankovic should be favourite but, as mentioned, there's nothing in post-match interviews, news stories etc that suggests this is the case.


Martinez $2.22 5Dimes
(you can get closer to 2.45 on Betfair)


Peschke v Frazier.
Amelia Island - Round 2

Just as surprised by these prices. Peschke rates clay as her favourite surface and has a 48/30 career record on the surface. She also had a straight set first round win over clay-court specialist Castano who's been in good form lately. Moreover she breezed through her 2 qualification games in straight sets. Frazier on the other hand, has a 23/25 clay record and is far more at home on hardcourt. Neither player is in their prime - Frazier's 32, Pescke 29 - but the latter certainly has the game to win. I rate Peschke a 60.3% chance and will gladly take the value.

Frazier can obviously win but the short odds are, in my opinion, plain crazy. This is the same player who was beaten in straight sets by Kutuzova (ranked 271) in Indian Wells a few short weeks ago . . . and hardcourts are Frazier's speciality!

Peschke $2.85 @ 5Dimes



Dulko v Likhovtseva
Amelia Island - Round 2

A relatively even match up - both players are competent on clay though I give the edge to Dulko. I think the odds probably reflect Likhovtseva's slightly better start to the hardcourt season but as I've said before, I'm not sure this form transfers to clay as readily as some think. At 29 years old, Likhovtseva hasn't played that may games on clay and her record of 63/52 hardly outshines 20-year-old Dulko's record of 35/21. Likhovtseva did manage to get past clay court specialist Pistolesi in the first round though the Israeli is on the comeback trail after injury/illness. Similarly, Dulko beat another competent clay courter in Srebrotnik in straight sets. I rate her a 55.2% chance of winning.

Dulko $2.00 @ 5Dimes



Garrigues v Farina Elia
Amelia Island - Round 2

Another match I think will be close and while I give Farina Elia a very slight edge, Garrigues represents the value. Garrigues great win over Linetskya in the first round underlines her solid clay court abilities. Her career record stands at 76/43 and some her best results have come on the surface. Farina Elia comes into the clay swing in relatively good form and generally does well at this time of year. Her career record stands at 112/62 and although she has been troubled by a recurring right shoulder injury over the past few months, I'm not sure if this plays into the odds (though her last tournament was Dubai). This match should be close and Garrigues is more than capable of winning. She's the bookies outsider but there's no way she should be this price so early in the clay season.


Garrigues $2.57 @ 5Dimes
(might better prices later?)