7th April 2005, 06:41 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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Why not have a go at creating your own price market ,then bet all the selections in the race that are paying greater than your selection 1 min. till jump time.
What one will find ,doing this process , is that the TAB Shortest price Fav is now seen as your enemy , because they have a habbit of getting up when you don`t want then to , just beating your horse when your horse was leading ,
with 50 metres to go.
SIMPLE VALUE RATING METHOD
(This has been brought up before on this forum)
1)Target the top 4-5 ranked horses in the newspaper pre-post.
(these make up 75% of all winners)
You could also use the Pro Puns top 5 selections ,which are FREE.
2)Only target races where all 4-5 ranked pre-post horses ,have had at least 1+ career wins, with at least 2+ career starts. Otherwise , no bet that race.
Also , if there are any resumers in your 4-5 ranked selections , no bet that race.
We are trying to craete an Apples with Apples environment & resumers are Oranges which can create an upset result out of our control ,that`s why we delete these races all together.
3)Divide it`s career wins into its career starts , this will give us the odds it has to be ,before we place a bet , once the TAB price is known.
e.g. 3 wins over 10 career starts =3/1 ($4.00)
5 wins over 36 starts 7.2/1 ($8.20)
The TAB has to pay more than these prices before one bets on them, so as to get the overs. That`s why they are called overs.
4) Target races where field size is between 10-15 runners, so as to work with bigger prices.
5) Bet the Overs selections , same amount on each .
What we are to do here ,is trying to create a Book against the Bookmaker .
We have the advantage that we can Cherry pick the races that will suit us for value and leave the others because we dont have to bet in every race like he has to.
May The Punt Be With You.
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Cheers.
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