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Originally Posted by Rock Steady
BJ,
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"If a maiden dog runs 31.00 seconds to win a race, and then in a free for all over the same distance, the winner also runs 31.00 seconds. To me the performance is equal, and the class of the race is irrelevant."
This is where I completely disagree. A maiden dog can run fast time in low class but put it into a third or fourth grade event and it will struggle to repeat the fast time. It's called "PRESSURE".
The other point I would be interested to get your answer on is track bias.
How do you account for track bias in your database. The Angle Park track will vary by up to 1 second in times from one meeting to the next with similar class dogs running on both nights. If a dog has had 60 career starts and won 10 races at the track in the following times - 30.2, 30.25, 30.33, 30.25, 30.35, 30.40, 30.21, 30.25, 30.37, 30.36 and 29.85, do you assess this dog as a 29.85 dog or something else? You might find that the night it ran 29.85 the track was on fire with all winners on the night breaking 30.00 seconds.
In my opinion it would be a costly mistake to rate this dog as a 29.85 dog if racing against GENUINE sub 30sec dogs.
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Are you saying to me that a dog that wins a maiden will run slower in its next race?
I don't care how many starts a dog has ran in its career as long as all dogs in the field have had at least 3. I am only interested in the dogs last 3 races, I do not care about its fastest ever time. Therefore a dog with a fastest recorded time of 29.85 would not be rated as such, unless it ran that time in each of its last 3 races over the current distance.
I am looking for standout dogs, with the fastest speed rating, the fastest average speed rating, from its last 3 starts. This is to target dogs that don't get into trouble, generally dogs that are at the front at the first corner.
In races with quality fields, chances are there will be no betting opportunities because of the closeness of their ratings. As I said, there is about 1 betting opportunity every 3 races. Some of these dogs are odds on, some of them pay $20.
I do not have a database of previous starts. All I have at my disposal, is track records, and form of the dogs for last 3 starts. That is all I want. An easy system, that returns >100%.
I do agree that track bias would play a part, however, you would need to keep too much information up to date to put this to use. All statistics from each track in the country would need to be recorded and maintained, which does not interest me in the slightest.