Petrova v Jankovic
Amelia Island - Round 3

Despite disposing of Martinez, I still feel Jankovic is over-rated at the moment. She'll find the going harder today against Petrova, the wily Russian who prefers hardcourts but is more than competent on clay. Petrova crushed specialist clay-courter Maleeva in the first round and has some decent results at this tournament, including a straight sets win over a fully-fit Serena Williams last year. She's also had a good start to the season and should be full of confidence. Both players have similar records on the surface though Petrova has generally beat a better class of player (ie higher rated). Should be close and Jankovic is definitely an improver but I rate Petrova a 58.2% chance of winning.

Petrova $1.87 @ 5Dimes


Sugiyama v Razzano
Amelia Island - Round 3

Sugiyama finally seems to be finding some form after an ordinary start to the season. She's had a couple of good wins over clay-court specialists Strycova and Sanchez-Lorenzo and although appearing to still lack a little confidence, her game is definitely on the up. It must be said that clay isn't her best surface though she's more than capable of holding her own and had a good clay swing last year.What I do like about Sugiyama is her Lleyton-Hewitt-like quality where she always gives 100% until the last point. Her opponent Razzano impressed us all by breezing passed Molik without any major problems though I feel this was a 'one off' performance. Molik's unforced error count certainly helped. Razzano's competent on clay but her record is rather mixed with quite a few of her wins coming on the Challenger circuit. Like Sugiyama, she had a terrible start to the season and will be out to build on the momentum from her Molik win.

Sugiyama $1.57 @ 5Dimes


Zvonereva v Likhovtseva
Amelia Island - Round 3

Likhovtseva did just enough to get passed Dulko yesterday but this will be alot harder. Zvonereva is having a great year and boasts a 58/17 clay record with quite a few of her wins coming over top rated players. She had a hard fought win over the tenacious Peng but I'll put the score down to a bit of rustiness first up on clay. Likhovtseva is another player I think is over-rated. Her clay record stands at 64/52 and her results suggest she prefers it a bit faster than the conditions on offer at Amelia Island. She'll also have a lot more problems with Zvonereva's serve compared to the weak efforts Dulko was dishing up yesterday.

Zvonereva $1.56 @ Pinnacle


NB: I'm rather keen on Farina Elia @ $2.50 versus Patty Schnyder but am a bit shy posting outsiders after yesterday. Schydner's a bit of a head case at times and you never know which 'personality' is going to turn up. I have them rated 52-48 to Schydner so, in my opinion, there's value on Farina Elia but I'll be a tad cautious this early in the clay swing.


PS: Mr Ed, thanks for the kind words - always nice after an ordinary day at the office. I have accounts at 16 bookies but 95% of my bets are placed at Betfair, 5Dimes and Pinnacle (in that order). Most online bookies are a joke when it comes to tennis - both ATP and WTA - but you can do good business with these 3 alone. The key is being in the market when they post their
opening lines. They generally do so at the same time each day - relative to the tournament timezone - so it's a fairly easy process.

Even though Betfair prices are generally superior, I don't post them because the amount available for betting is often insubstantial and can change quickly.