I think they are starting to find a bit of form. If it was just Riewoldt, I would not be that concerned, I believe Kositchtzke could fill the gaps. But he is gone also, and Gehrigs fitness basically puts him at about 70% effectiveness. Leaving a forward line with few targets. Our focal point will be Hamill who would be struggling to be 6 foot ?

However, I think the midfield will now be more likely to fire a few more shots towards goal themselves. They are all capable, and I think the best way to beat Melbourne is to make their midfielders accountable, and put them in a defensive mindset. Also, Moloney out will help.
With that in mind, here are my tips......

Round 4

Kangaroos (1-24)
Brisbane (25+)
West Coast (25+)
Geelong (1-24)
Port Adelaide (25+)
Sydney (1-24)
Richmond (1-24)
St Kilda (1-24) 19

And Moeee, remember, the Saints played that way last year having to rove to the opposition. Now they have a capable ruckman, although he is no Spider Everitt, but capable and quite mobile all the same. Don't write them off just yet.