Yeah. While strike rates are generally a good guide, in some circumstances, overall career statistics may actually be misleading when applying it to the conditions of today's race.

For example, there are some horses which are first up specialists and they don't perform nearly as well later on. Winning all those 1st up runs may give them a prett good overall strike rate which would be misleading when contesting other races. Similarly, what about stayers who might have a great record in 2400-3200 races. That has nothing to do with how they're going to go first up over 1400m or so. Also, there are many horses which are track specialists and their record at one track is no comparison to their overall record.

A perfect example is Regal Roller, a wonderful horse to back because his form is just so black and white. He absolutely LOVES Caulfield, especially over 1400m, and he's simply nowhere near as effective at any other track.

Regal Roller's overall stats are:
33 starts: 12 wins, 3 2nds, 4 3rds - That's a win strike rate of 36% which would convert to a true price of $2.80. Now, there's absolutely no way I'd even consider backing Regal Roller at $2.80 away from Caulfield. In fact, I wouldn't really consider backing Regal Roller at all away from Caulfield. His Caulfield record is 14 starts: 9 wins, 2 2nds, 1 3rd for a win strike rate of 64%. As for his record at Caulfield over 1400m, that's 11 starts: 8 wins, 1 2nd, 1 3rd and a win strike rate of 73%. Why would you bother backing him anywhere else???

If you have a horse that's had a fair number of starts and it's form is well exposed, it would be a good idea to look at it's strike rate under the conditions of today's race. In Regal Roller's case, based on past form, it's true price for a race at Caulfield over 1400m would be about $1.40.