15th April 2005, 08:19 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 804
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nickhanlon
Someone recently mentioned this idea in this forum.That is,you take the strike rate and convert it to a betting price.ie.50% equals $2.00.You can check out the odds calculator to ge the full list.
It strikes me as common sense so long as your mule has had at least 5 starts and you are converting a career stat into something that applies to a very particular set of circumstances.However,I have found strike rates to be very useful overall.
Does anyone have any thoughts or stats on this one?
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It is statistically flawed and won't work.
Eg R7 at Flemington tomorrow: TAB numbers followed by strike rate converted to a betting price:
1- 25%=$4.00
2- 42%=$2.38
3- 26%= $3.85
4- 47%= $2.13
5- 33%= $3.00
6- 19%= $5.26
7- 38% =$2.63
That is already a market of 230% and there another 9 horses in the field. If you are creating your own betting prices any method which makes a market of over 100% is guaranteed to regularly give you betting prices which are huge unders - poor value.
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