Sir Dex hasn't won for over a year and has a poor overall strike rate, but he gets a class drop, Beadman on and the way he's been running the 2000m looks likely to suit.

Bush Honey beat Sir Dex home last start and gets a clear weight advantage tomorrow. With her improving ratings it is hard to see Sir Dex turning the tables. The step up in distance also suits, as Bush Honey's best career run was her open handicap win at Wyong last September over 2100m.

Havana Wind is super-consistent. On my ratings the Jeremaid race that he contested last start was superior to the Striking Victory race in which Sir Dex and Bush Honey ran. Larry Cassidy goes back on and he's won twice on Havana Wind, including a very easy victory at this track and distance back in January.

I like the race to bet because it appears that these are the only three chances. The key for me is that Havana Wind will lead off a slow tempo. The other two will be giving him a couple of lengths at the top of the straight and I think this will prove decisive.