moeee,
Didn't bag you mate - just interested in reasons. I'd seen the Hawks in all their matches and they are not that bad a side - I can only go on what I "see" not read or "hear". I always watch the replays without the commentary - don't want to be influenced by those guys on the TV.
I put up my Hawks plays on this forum yesterday and gave the computed percentage as well.
Lions were still favoured to win by my method BUT this game is all about value. That percentage indicated they were massive overs. For a little $30 Index bet it sure was a nice surprise to see what unfolded.

I've now got the other two games going for nil risk to my capital and the chance of a $5K+ weekend.