
20th April 2005, 08:03 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,009
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Shaun, I just thought of an idea. Go through your form guides each week and check out all the horses that have had at least 3 previous 1st-up runs and preferably at least 3 2nd-up runs too. Ideally, they should be 4 or 5yos. I would look for a 51%+ winning strike rate for both 1st-up & 2nd-up or a 76%+ strike rate for either. Mark these horses down and be ready to back them next time they resume from a spell for 2 or 3 starts or until they have a win. You could build up a stable that way.
Here are some that I picked out from the last few Saturday's form guides for Bris, Syd, Melb:
Champion Star 4yo
1st up 3 3-0-0
2nd up 2 0-1-1
Tornado Alley 4yo
1st up 3 2-1-0
2nd up 3 2-0-0
Medium Swing 5yo
1st up 3 3-0-0
2nd up 3 1-1-0
Algorithm 5yo
1st up 5 4-0-0
2nd up 4 2-0-0
Fourofakind 4yo
1st up 4 1-0-2
2nd up 3 3-0-0
Zoe's Lad 5yo
1st up 5 4-0-0
2nd up 5 0-1-0
Not sure about Zoe's Lad. It has a brilliant first up record, but a poor second up record. Then again, that can lead to good dividends. For example, using this method, we would have backed Algorithm when it won 2nd-up recently at 14-1.
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