This is an interesting thread, and it leads me to a question: What is a good strike rate?

If you have a 45 % strike rate in your top 2, then you will have a 70% strike rate in your top 4. The market has a 75% strike rate in it's top four, so really no-one can expect to better that, because by definition the market always has the four best chances in the race. It always has the four shortest, therefore in the long run it ipso facto has the four best chances. Time and analysis of winning percentages compared to starting percentage bears that out.

So, if the market has the best strike rate out there, then what strike rate is good?

By the way this refers to a method that comes up with a top four in a race, not a method that comes up with the odd selection. A method that comes up with the odd selection can have - and often does - a better s/r than the favourite, which is 28%, however what I am talking about is a selection method. What is a good strike rate for a selection method? I know it is also dependant on price, but given that in order to have a good strike rate in your top four you must have favoured runners in there, but you won't always pick the top four favourites, what's a good strike rate?

What are some strike rates you guys have seen, used etc, especially in mechanical selection programs, ie the computer doing the form?

If you don't have the records of top 4 strike rates, here is a table below that lists what your top 4 strike rate would be based on the strike rate of your top selection:

1st s/r top 4 s/r
10% 34%
11% 37%
12% 40%
13% 43%
14% 45%
15% 48%
16% 50%
17% 53%
18% 55%
19% 57%
20% 59%
21% 61%
22% 63%
23% 65%
24% 67%
25% 68%
26% 70%
27% 72%
28% 73%
29% 75%
30% 76%
31% 77%
32% 79%
33% 80%
34% 81%
35% 82%
36% 83%
37% 84%
38% 85%
39% 86%
40% 87%
41% 88%
42% 89%
43% 89%
44% 90%
45% 91%
46% 91%
47% 92%
48% 93%
49% 93%
50% 94%

So essentially if you get a s/r of 29% top pick winners home in a selection process then you're going to get 75% in the top 4, etc.

What do newspapers generally get? What do ratings sellers get? Automated programs? You as an individual? The old lady down the street?