Estoril & Warsaw
Red Clay
http://www.jandscup.pl/
http://www.estorilopen.net/
Apologies for the late post. There were quite a few late withdrawals today - see previous post - and the bookies are taking forever to reframe their markets. Interestingly, several bookies are still taking bets on games declared void through withdrawal more than 12 hours ago.
I'm waiting on a few more prices so may paste extra bets. Still quite a few hours until these games start.
I've picked a few genuine outsiders today as upsets are quite common early in the clay swing.
Cervanova v Parra-Sontanja
Round 1: Estoril
Both players prefer clay and both are competent on the surface. Cervanova's career clay record is 98/70 while Parra-Sontanja's is 59/36. Cervanova has had the better preparation as she played in the Dinan clay challenger 2 weeks ago where she reached the QF's (losing in a close 3 setter). Moreover, these two players met on Acupulco's red clay in early March where Cervanova was the easy winner in 6:2 6:3. Parra-Sontanja hasn't played since Miami 3 weeks ago so may be a little rusty for this encounter. I rate Cervanova a 64.1% chance of winning - she's been a solid improver over the past few months
Cervanova $1.65
($1.65 available at smaller bookies - the larger books may have better
prices but they're yet to post lines).
Cohen-Aloro v Na Li
Round 1: Estoril
Cohen-Aloro is a clay-court specialist with a competent 39/36 career record. She seems to enjoy this tournament making the SF's here last year and the QF's in 2003. Her opponent today Na Li is a great prospect on hardcourts but has only played 7 games on clay. Five of these were in the 2004 WulanHaoate Challenger which she won - but the tournament is mainly an all-Chinese affair with an extremely poor field (rated C25 which is 3 tiers below today's event). This game could be relatively close because Na Li is one of those girls who never gives up but she hasn't played on the WTA circuit since March (though she played Fed Cup) and is another player who is first-up on her least favourite surface. Of course Na Li can win but the prices are simply based on her overall WTA rating which does not adjust for the surface. She's seeded fourth for the tourney despite playing only 7 games on clay over several years. Note that Li had to fly in from China's Fed Cup tie in India on Sunday where the matches were on hardcourt, so it will certainly take some adjustment.
Cohen-Aloro $2.60 @ 5Dimes
Ondraskova v Douchevina
Round 1: Warsaw
Backing another outsider here but not without reason. Ondraskova isn't as well known as Douchevina but is still an experienced clay-court specialist with a 66/38 record. She's just played in the Dinan clay Challenger where she reached the final. Though losing, she beat 3 handy clay-courters on the way including Cervanova, Savchuk and Kloesel. While most of her wins have been on the Challenger circuit, she's had the benefit of 3 qualification games which she won easily in straight sets. Douchevina has some form on clay but most of this is also on the Challenger circuit and she rates hard courts as her favourite surface. She lost in the first round of Amelia Island 2 weeks ago which was her most recent game so she's first up on red clay. I rate these two very closely and Ondraskova will have to play very well but she's a genuine chance.
Ondraskova $2.70 @ Centrebet
(there should be better prices later - Centrebet have poor margins)
Nagyova v Zheng
Round 1: Estoril
A very similar analysis to the game above. Zheng is a hradcourt player with a limited clay-court game. Her career record stands at 29/22, most of which was earned on the Challenger circuit. She hasn't played on the WTA circuit since March (though played Fed Cup) and is first-up on her least favourite/successful surface. Nagyova is another clay-court specialist with a lot of experience and a 121/72 career record. To be fair, she hasn't achieved much in the last year or so but she did play in the recent Dinan clay challenger where she reached the QFs. She's also had two solid qualification games which she won is straight sets (albeit against low ranked opponents). However she's had the better preparation and has the edge in experience. Note that Zheng also had to fly in from China's Fed Cup tie in India on Sunday. I rate these two very closely but Nagoya is a slight favourite in my book.
Nagyova $2.35 @ Centrebet
(there should be better prices later - Centrebet have poor margins)
NOTES: Farina Elia has been troubled by a shoulder injury and while the highest ranked player on the Italian Fed Cup team, she didn't make the court. Similarly, Flavia Pennetta has been troubled by a foot injury and like Farina-Elia, didn't play in the Fed Cup tie despite being the second ranked Italian player.