I may be getting off the point here but this sums up my thoughts on value. If a horse at double figure odds gets up to beat our own selection, the first thing we do is look at the form of that horse and ask ourselves why did it win and why was it as such good odds. I will guarantee it was at good odds for any one or combination of the following:

1. lots of 7 8 9 or zeros in form
2. unfashionable jockey or trainer
3. WIDE BARRIER
4. SUPPOSEDLY unsuitable distance/going/track
5. not in most favoured column of tipsters panel

The more of these factors that apply to my top rated selection the happier I am . It means A BETTER PRICE . How many top rated selection criteria actually make a profiit as a single factor? such as the top jockey or trainer, horse with the best strike rate at the distance or going or track. Not many I bet and that is because they are overbet.

The method I now use is to just use the best rating of the last three runs and price the race accordingly. no bonuses or penaltys for top jockeys good barriers or distance specialists, just the best recent run. The strikerate of my top selection probably wont be as good as those who add other factors in but the prices I get will overcome that.