Originally Posted by Duritz

The reason I am doing it is so I can come up with a method of the computer giving a rating to first starters. Essentially, it would go like this:

Say the average s/r of all sires with first starters is one in 11 right, then when there's a first starter the computer would start it out as a 10/1 chance, then it would look up the s/r of the horse's sire, adjust accordingly (say the sire had a one in twenty chance then it's initial percentage value of 9% - making it a 10/1 chance - would be halved, because the sire's s/r was only half of the average), then the new % of 4.5% would be subjected to the same process for the trainer, and the jockey, using their s/r compared to the average for trainers, and jockeys. It might have a trainer whose s/r is 15% and the average is 7.5%, so the 4.5% chance of the horse gets doubled to 9% again, and the jockey may have a 24% s/r when the average for jockeys might be 8%, so the 9%gets tripled to 27%, making it a $3.50 chance.

That's what I am looking at. What do ya reckon?