Appreciate your edumacation pointers Rocksteady,but being a mathematician extraordinaire,am actually familiar with Kelly's methods.
And I bet to chances.
If I believe a selection is a 40% chance then I will back it as though it was,whether 4 to 1 is available or 40 to 1.
I do not increase the size of my stake because it drifted out a number of points.
I choose to bet only if I can get a certain percentage above my price.
In the case of the Magpies,I assess them as a 40% chance and will accept a minimum of 29%.
The size of my bet is independant of external factors and is only related to making an overall profit of 15% in the long run.
Any extra odds over my assessment is a bonus.