Whether anyone agrees with your or not Tab Hunter, thats an Outstanding piece of work. Thanks for taking the time.

I don't have a firm view yet on who I fancy for the cup, but I have learnt a few things from experience that may help anyone interested.

If we go back through all the past winners you see a common theme....nearly all meet the following criteria:

* They have excellent recent form in their last start or two(wins, close placings)
* That form is in G1/G2 races.
* The horse has proven capable of winning over staying trips in G1/G2 company.

Every year though there are pretenders that fool us into thinking they have good winning chances, by virtue of their fair to average performances in lead up runs and then promotion from so called media experts...comments like "just about to hit peak form", "crying out for the distance" etc. etc. seem to be all too common and do nothing more than fool usnsupecting punters into thinking a horse has a better chance than it really does.

My advice would be that you will be well served by at least sticking to the above rules as the first filtering process to come up with your selections for the Cup. Ignore those that don't meet this criteria, history says they don't win.

Following are features of recent winners, showing how consistently they have met the above:

2001 Ethereal: 3rd at her 2nd last start in a G1 race then won the Caulfield Cup at her last start (2400m).
2000 Brew: 2nd in his 2nd last start over 2500m in a G2 race, then won his last start in another G2 race over 2500m.
1999 Rogan Josh: Formline read 1,4,1 all over 2400m, all in group 2/1 races. Last start prior to cup 2400m win at G1 WFA.
1998 Jezabeel: Statistically an exception finished 6th in the Caulfield Cup at her prior start but would have won (in my view) if she wasn't absolutely flattened by Taufan's Melody in the late part of the straight.
1997 Might and Power: Won the Caulfield Cup at his start prior.
1996 Saintly: Won the Cox Plate at his start prior, placed in Metrop prior to that and Derby placed as a 3YO in arguable one of the highest quality Derby's ever.
1995 Doriemus: Won the Caulfield Cup at his start prior

The list goes on. Of course there are exceptions in some years, but the fact remains that history says you need excellent recent form (wins or close places) in G1 (preferrably) or at the worst G2 races to win the Melbourne Cup.

As we approach the race it will be interesting to apply these rules and see what contenders we are left with.