Bets 90; Won 64; Lost 26
At Flat Stakes: Bet 90 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 14.5%

Two wins and a void as Sucha withdrew and was replaced by LL Haynes.

Very jumbled start to the week in terms of bookies prices. There was a wide discrepancy in the early odds yesterday and some very attractive early prices - even a few arbs available. I'm not sure why, but there was also a lot on money traded on Betfair - again some very interesting prices. It's a pity there aren't more days like it!

Garrigues' price came in fairly quickly so I'll record her at $1.45 in the record as opposed to the early $1.50.

Please note: I'm going to introduce half-unit stakes for betting purposes. Flat stakes are a great means of comparing various tipping systems but it makes it difficult to back outsiders on a consistent basis. This also permits a little conservatism during the topsy-turvy changeover between surfaces.

My personal betting stakes are proportional to my perceived overlay - it's a modified form of Kelly betting.


Randriantefy v Dechy
Berlin: Round 1

Dechy's a good chance of winning this but the price on Randriantefy is too high. Randriantefy played one poor game against Na Li last week so I feel her price is an over reaction. Remember Dechy was beaten on red clay by the unheralded Muesberger in the Fed Cup less than two weeks ago. She also played poorly against Paszek in the same series. Her record on clay is a competent 60/49 compared to Randriantefy's 114/59. Punters are probably reacting to Dechy's solid showing in her loss to Ivanovic in Warsaw but I wouldn't be taking the low odds on that result alone. Like all players Randriantefy can have bad days but there's no way she should be rated a 30% chance of winning as the average prices suggest.

Randriantefy $3.35 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT.

Savchuk v Tanasugarn
Morocco: Round 1

Not too many bookies pricing this up but Savchuk's a real chance. Tanasugarn may be about 100 ranking places higher than her opponent but nearly all her form is on hard. Her clay record stands at 12/33 and she only plays two or three torunaments on the surface each season. Savchuk is a young up-and-comer who played in Warsaw last week where she won three qualies and her first round match against the highly-rated Pennetta. It's true that Pennetta has been troubled by injury but Savchuk has also cruised through the qualies this week and should be well used to the conditions. This is Tanasugarn's first WTA game on the dirt since last year's French Open.

Savchuk $1.80 @ Interwetten 1 UNIT
(There could be better prices later - Interwetten have poor margins but not that many books are posting lines on Morocco)