Bets 98; Won 70; Lost 28
Units Staked: 96 units; Won 17.27 units; ROI 17.6%


Two wins and two losses for a very small loss. Both winners were avaliable at slightly better prices so it was possible to get a break-even position but I'll leave the early lines in the record.

Pierce v Petrova
Berlin: Round 3

This will be a big ask of Pierce but she's in superior form to Petrova at the moment and has had two good wins here in Berlin. She's also more experienced (90/41 clay record), rates clay as her favourite surface and, as mentioned yesterday, is very determined to play well during this swing. Pierce recently beat Petrova on hard which is only relevant because it is the Russian's favourite surface (Indian Wells 6:2 6:2). Mary should therefore enter this game with some confidence. Petrova certainly has the game to win today but a large part of her price reflects her reputation on hard where she's had most of her success. The slow European clay conditions don't really suit her game as she prefers it much faster (grass is her second-best surface). Petrova's clay record stands 44/30 but she hasn't beaten anyone of note on red clay for more than two years. Her best clay results have been on American green clay which has a higher speed-rating than red. That said, I'm going to be cautious and take a half unit.

Pierce $2.50 HALF UNIT
(This is an early line available at a few smaller books with poor margins. I expect better later).


Shaughnessy v Bovina
Berlin: Round 3

At the risk of contradicting myself I'm backing Shaughnessy - someone, as I said yesterday, I don't rate on clay. However if on current form she can beat Randriantefy in straight sets she can surely beat Bovina as red clay is far from the Russian's best surface. Sure she's competent but her second round match against Daniilidou yesterday showed her vulnerabilty as Daniilidou is very ordinary on the dirt. This was also evident in her struggle to beat Hantuchova in Warsaw last week as Hantuchova is another player who is ordinary on clay. There are minor concerns over Shaughnessy who has had a nagging back
injury but according to reports, this didn't seem to hamper her yesterday. I'll take the long odds but another cautious approach for a half unit.

Shaughnessy $4.75 @ Sportstab HALF UNIT
(Maybe slightly better prices later)

NOTE: If anyone with a Betfair account wants a small-stakes fun bet, lay Henin at around the $1.10 mark. A ten dollar bet returns around $100. My reasoning is Henin had to play 2 matches yesterday - both were 3-setters and she looked a tad ordinary in her losing sets. She must be knackered and played Warsaw last week with heavy strapping on her thigh. She'll probably come out and win but there's some 'beer-money' value at those prices.

NOTE TWO: At this stage of the tournament Mauresmo stands out as the likely finalist from the bottom half of the draw. Henin, Clijsters, Sharapova and Kuznetsova are all in the top half. Mauresmo has to face Razzano today and maybe Petrova or Bovina, both of whom are vulnerable as explained in today's tips. She's worth backing now at $5.50 or more on Betfair which then gives you the opportunity to lay her back if she makes the final for a guaranteed profit. Mauresmo is currently rated 'number one' for clay form in my database (her record is 100/37 on clay). You could back her at the bookies but I doubt you'll get the same price as Betfair - Ladbrokes go $5.00.