I'm interested in why a number of people believe that Northerly won't run the distance?

The truth is we really don't know do we? I learnt a rule a long time ago that I have always stuck by when it comes to distance....."the trainer knows the horse better than we do, so in the absence of contrary evidence, we are better off to accept the trainers judgement than make an assumption that a horse won't run a given distance....if we don't we are simply guessing".

This is especially true when referring to top class horses like Northerly.

Fred Kersley wouldn't be starting him...with 58kg....with the chance of flattening him for the Cox plate...if he didn't believe Northerly would run the trip.

My analysis from this time last year made me very excited to see Northerly race over 2400m. His running style made me believe that at his best he would be almost unbeatable over the distance. He has the ability to maintain very high speed for extended distances, especially in the run to the line. In the Cox plate last year, he was the only horse travelling faster in the last 200m of the race than he did during the first section, all the others were going slower.

This ability to maintain high speed in the run to the line while most horses tire at an increasing rate is basically what makes him look like a 'fighting tiger' A horse might head him briefly, but Northerly keeps going at a similar pace, the others tire in the last 100m and it gives the impression he fights back. When he fights back he isn't actually picking up speed, he's losing speed at a small rate, but the others are losing it at a much greater rate.

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Northerly can't run the distance so based on my rule and analysis of his running style, i'm going to adopt the view that he can run the trip. We could even argue that Northerly is much more dour this preparation, more of a grinding type...if anything that makes him more likely to run the distance.

If there is all this talk about Northerly running the trip, what about Dash for Cash? Northerly has won numerous times over 2000m, Dash for Cash is yet to...he is more a sprinter miler. But the same point holds, there is no evidence that he can't run the trip and Rick Hore Lacy wouldn't be starting him if he had major doubts, so we have to assume that he will run it out.

Of course we will find out Saturday